Web-Based New Student Admission Information System for Applicant Prediction Using Linear Regression

Nasrul Abdul Karim

doi:10.55537/cosie.v5i4.1877

Authors

Nasrul Abdul Karim Universitas Pamulang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55537/cosie.v5i4.1877

Keywords:

PPDB Information System, Simple Linear Regression, Prediction, Rapid Application Development

Abstract

At present, SMA Islam Hidayatul Ahkam still handles its New Student Admission (Penerimaan Peserta Didik Baru/PPDB) procedure by hand. Because of this, checking submitted documents takes a long time, data entry mistakes are common, and school staff struggle to estimate how many applicants to expect in the following intake for capacity planning purposes. This study sets out to design and build a web-based PPDB information system equipped with a Simple Linear Regression prediction module, taking SMA Islam Hidayatul Ahkam as the case study. The system was constructed following the Rapid Application Development (RAD) approach and implemented with native PHP, PDO, and a MySQL database. Four years of historical applicant records were processed using the least squares technique, yielding the regression equation Ŷ = 36 + 10.9X. From this equation, the system forecasts 91 applicants for the 2026/2027 academic year, with an operational range of 77 to 105 (a ±15% margin, not a formal statistical interval), a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 15.14%, and an R² value of 47.65% (in-sample). Black box and white box testing confirmed that every system function operated correctly and that the automatically generated calculations matched the manual ones exactly, confirming software implementation consistency rather than the statistical validity of the forecast. These findings indicate that the resulting web-based PPDB system serves not merely as an administrative tool but also as a prototype predictive-analysis aid that still requires further validation, for planning and decision-making in new student admissions at SMA Islam Hidayatul Ahkam

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